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Two days to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and lost, was in 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in Adelaide four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

The challenge in {day-night matches|